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- 2015
重大核事故情景库建立及应用
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Abstract:
突发事件的应对方法主要被分为两类, 即传统的“预测-应对”模式和新兴的“情景-应对”模式。近年来随着社会的进步和发展, 非常规突发事件的罕见性、演化过程的复杂性及不可预测性, 造成后果的严重性及不确定性愈发明显, 决策者逐渐发现传统的“预测-应对”模式已经无法满足现代应急需求, 因此“情景-应对”模式被越来越多的学者和应急指挥人员所广泛接受并得到了大量研究。该文以非常规突发事件中较为罕见但影响重大的核事故为研究对象, 采用后果评价的方法分别针对简单风场和复杂风场进行研究并建立重大核事故情景库, 通过风场分析的方式缩小情景库规模, 最后利用情景比对的方法实现重大核事故源项反演。通过情景库进行源项反演的方法具有速度快、效率高的特点, 能够为核事故应急救援工作的开展节省宝贵的时间。
Abstract：Approaches for dealing with emergency events can be divided into two categories. One is the traditional “forecast-response” type, while the other is the emerging “scenario-response” type. However, in recent years, the “forecast-response” type has been unable to predict the emergency needs of complex, modern scenarios because of the complexity, unpredictability and seriousness of unconventional events. Thus, the “scenario-response” type has become more widely accepted by scholars and emergency command staff. This study considers rare nuclear accidents that can have severe consequences. A serious nuclear accident scenario library is developed using consequence assessments with simple and complex wind fields. The size of the scenario library is then reduced based on analyses of the wind fields with a library developed for the source term inversion. This efficient method can save valuable time during nuclear accident emergency responses.
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