基于中国TIMES模型的碳排放达峰路径
China's carbon emissions peak path-based on China TIMES model

该文以中国能源系统优化模型（China TIMES）为基础，构建了碳排放达峰路径模型体系，分析了中国未来可能的碳排放峰值水平和达峰路径，综合评估了各部门及各项措施的碳减排贡献。结果表明：在参考情景下，中国的能源消费与碳排放在2010-2050年间将持续增长，对能源安全和应对气候变化带来严峻挑战；在达峰情景下，通过发展非化石能源和推广高耗能工业的节能减排技术，使得电力、工业和高耗能工业部门分阶段地实现碳排放达峰，进而实现2030年碳排放峰值达100亿~108亿t；电力和工业部门是碳减排的关键部门，二者在2030年的减排贡献分别达到75%和15%；发展非化石能源和提高高耗能工业的能效是碳减排的关键措施，二者在2030年的减排贡献分别达到65%和15%。
Abstract：In this study, an integrated carbon emission peak path model system was built based on China TIMES model, and was used to analyze China's carbon emissions peak and peak path. The results show that China's carbon emissions will maintain rapid growth in the reference scenario between 2010-2050, and give enormous pressure on China's energy security and addressing climate change; in emission peak scenarios, through the development of non-fossil energy and the adoption of energy-conservation and emission-reduction measures, carbon-intensive sectors (power and industry sectors) can achieve early emissions peak and guarantee the overall carbon emissions peak between 10.0-10.8 billion t; power sector and energy-intensive sectors are the main carbon mitigation sectors, the contribution of carbon mitigation are 75% and 15%, respectively. In addition, adopting non-fossil energy and the energy-efficient technologies are main carbon mitigation measures, and the contribution of carbon mitigation are 65% and 15%, respectively.