不同分配方案下各国碳排放额及公平性评价
CO2 emission allowances for typical allocation regimes and their equality assessments

基于政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第五次评估报告第一工作组决策者摘要给出的实现控制2 ℃温升目标不同可能性下的累计碳排放总量, 该文计算比较了代表性分配方案下各主要国家和地区2010—2100年的分配额, 并基于此用人均累计排放构建的Theil指数评价了各方案的公平性。结果表明: 各国分配额随全球允许排放总量的增加均将有所增大, 但不同分配方案赋予各国分配额的增长比例不同; 且在给定的允许排放总量下, 分配方案参数的变化也会对各国排放额有一定影响。对于各方案的公平性而言, 考虑历史责任的方案能有效减少全球排放的不公平性; 考虑能力的方案有助于减少附件I和非附件I这2组间已存在的排放不公平性。
Abstract：The cumulative emissions data provided by the Summary for Policymakers of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (Working Group I) were used to calculate the carbon allowances for the main countries and regions during 2010-2100 for typical allocation schemes. The results show that each country's permitted discharges change with the various total constraints at different rates for each scheme. In addition, the scheme parameters also impact each country's quota. The allocation regimes are evaluated from the perspective of fairness to show that the regimes based on historical responsibilities more effectively reduce the inequities among global emissions to maintain reasonable rights for developing countries and that the regimes based on ability to pay more effectively reduce the emissions inequities between Annex I and non-Annex I groups.