基于Poisson过程的沿海地区飓风灾害评估
Hurricane damage assessments for coastal areas based on a Poisson model

对沿海地区进行飓风灾害评估时，考虑到已有方法中往往忽略飓风发生的间歇性特性，导致分析结果不准确，该文提出了飓风灾害评估的新方法。将飓风发生的随机过程描述为平稳Poisson过程，并在此基础上给出了飓风灾害评估公式。选取美国Miami-Dade县1900-2010年的飓风数据进行分析，并应用该文提出的方法对该县未来50年内的飓风灾害进行评估。结果表明：Poisson过程能够准确刻画飓风发生的随机过程。如果忽略飓风的间歇性特性，会高估飓风灾害的均值和标准差，但低估其变异性。在50年的评估期内，如果忽略飓风的间歇性特性，则飓风灾害的均值和方差分别被高估41.4%和20.05%。
Abstract：Previous hurricane damage assessments for coastal areas have ignored the intermittent nature of hurrucanes. This paper presents an hurricane damage assessment method that accounts for the intermittency. A Poisson model is used in this paper to describe the hurricane stochastic process with explicit formulas for the hurricane damage assessment. Hurricane data for Miami-Dade County, USA, from 1900 to 2010 were used to illustrate the method. The Poisson model provides a reasonable description of the hurricane stochastic characteristics. The mean and the variance of the hurricane damage are overestimated while the coefficient of variance is underestimated if the intermittency is ignored. For example, for a 50-year service period, the mean cumulative hurricane damage is overestimated by 41.4% while the variance is over estimated by 20.05% if the intermittency is ignored.