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- 2016
Logistic回归模型在乒乓球技战术分析中的应用——以王皓对张继科的比赛为例
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Abstract:
摘要：在乒乓球技战术分析中首次运用Logistic回归模型。研究目的：1）分析张继科发球类型对王皓得失分的影响；2）分析张继科的发球类型、王皓的接发球类型和张继科的第三板技术，前三板技术组合对王皓得失分的影响；3）分析王皓的发球类型、张继科的接发球类型和王皓的第三板技术，前三板技术组合对王皓得失分的影响。研究方法：运用文献资料法确立研究设计；用录像观察法收集原始技战术统计数据；用Logistic回归法对乒乓球比赛前三板建立回归模型，对数据进行分析。研究结果：王皓接张继科发侧旋球要好于接逆旋发球。侧旋发球是张继科逆旋转发球的有益的、重要的补充；当张继科发逆旋转和侧旋转球时，王皓接发球控制的效果要好于进攻的效果；张继科发转不转球和长球对王皓的威胁较小；王皓的发球轮中，王皓发逆旋球、张继科进攻、王皓第三板进攻可能是王皓最好的套路组合。对于张继科的优势接发球技术“拧”，王皓在数据和场面上都有优势的。总体上分析，王皓输在自己的发球轮而不是接发球轮中。
Abstract: It is the first time to apply Logistic Regression Model in table tennis technique analysis. Purpose: 1) Analyze the effect of Zhang Jike’s serving type on Wang Hao’ scores; 2) Analyze the effects of Zhang Jike’s serving type, Wang Hao’s receiving type, and the technique and technique combination of Zhang Jike’s first three strokes on Wang Hao’ scores; 3) Analyze the effects of Wang hao’s serving type, Zhang Jike’s receiving type, and the technique and technique combination of Wang Hao’s first three strokes on Wang Hao’ scores. Methods: Research design was determined by literature review. Raw data was collected by video observation. The first three strokes model was established by Logistic regression and data was analyzed. Results: Wang Hao’s technique of receiving the sidespin serves is better than that of receiving anti-sidespin ones. Sidespin serving is a useful and important supplement to Zhang Jike’s anti-sidespin serving. When Zhang Jike is on sidespin and anti-sidespin serves, Wang Hao’s receiving effect is better than attack effect. The non-spin serves and long serves of Zhang Jike have limited threat to Wang Hao. In Wang Hao’s serve round, Wang Hao’s anti-sidespin serves, Zhang Jike’s attack and the third stroke attack may be the best technique combination of Wang Hao. Wang Hao has advantages on data and scene compared with Zhang Jike’s advantages of the receiving technique “Ning”. Overall, Wang Hao lost his own serve round rather than receiving round
