基于Panel Data模型的世界优秀男子十项全能运动员成绩研究
Men’s Decathlon Elite Athletes’ Performance Based on Panel Data Model

摘要：以分析十项全能运动运动员项目得分对总成绩的影响因素为研究目标。对2007年～2014年间的世界田径锦标赛、奥运会田径比赛等赛事中的22名男子运动员的十项全能运动项目成绩，共计199个观测值进行数据收集。运用文献资料法、数理统计方法，建立追踪数据库，构建静态面板固定效应模型，它可以研究去除掉运动员个体差异后的影响，在时间维度上只分析十项运动项目得分对总成绩的影响。研究结果，2007年至2014年间世界优秀男子十项全能总成绩得分呈上升趋势；在运动项目中对总成绩影响的结构中，田赛项目居首，其中跳高项目对总成绩得分的贡献最高。径赛项目中的跨栏项目对总成绩得分的贡献最高。田赛项目对总成绩的贡献力度要大于径赛项目。结论，panel data模型能从统计学的因果关系的角度厘清具体运动项目对全能运动员总成绩的影响效力，对于我国十项全能运动训练启示是重点提高跳跃类项目的技术训练。
Abstract: The objective of this study was the influencing factors of decathlon’ events achievement to total achievement. The 199 observation data of 22 men’s decathlon achievements in World Athletics Championships and track and field events in Olympics from 2007 to 2014 was collected in this study. This paper built up a tracking database and constructed a static fixed effect model by the methods of literature review and mathematical statistics. This model can remove athletes’ individual difference and only analyze event achievement’s influence to total score in time dimension. Total achievement of world elite men’s decathlon athletes has an ascending trend from 2007 to 2014. In the influencing factors structure, field events have the highest part in all events, especially high jump. Hurdling event has the highest contribution to total achievement in track events. Field events have more contribution to total achievement than track events. Conclusion: Panel Data model can clarify specific event’s influence to total achievement from causation in statistics, and its results enlighten China decathlon should focus on improving jump events skill training