全球竞争、经济发展与政府福利支出：以珠三角为例
Global competition, economic development and social welfare spending: Empirical evidence from the Pearl River Delta

摘 要： 理解政府福利支出的影响因素具有重要的社会意义，有助于进一步发展和完善社会福利制度。以珠三角地区9个城市2000―2014年的政府福利支出为研究对象，采用广义线性回归的随机效应模型描述并分析了在全球竞争压力下该地区政府福利支出何以稳步增长。研究发现，尽管全球竞争的压力抑制了政府福利支出，但经济发展水平是政府福利支出的重要动力。其中，总的政府福利支出、医疗支出和社会保障支出与人均GDP是“倒U型”关系，教育支出与人均GDP是正向线性关系，劳动争议能促进社会保障支出的增加。
Abstract: Understanding the dynamics of social welfare spending is an important research topic, for it helps develop and perfect the current social welfare system. Based on the panel data from nine cities of the Pearl River Delta spanning from 2000 to 2014, the present study explains why social welfare spending in this area steadily increases. Using GLS (Generalized Least Square) random-effect model, the study finds that although economic globalization pushes down the size of welfare spending, economic development is the main drive of the expansion of governmental welfare spending. In particular, GDP per capita holds linear relationship with educational spending, while it has reversed U shape relationship with overall social welfare spending, medical spending and social security spending. More findings show that labor disputes significantly encourage social security spending