农户对水稻低碳生产技术的采纳意愿研究
Farmers' Willingness to Adopt Rice Low-Carbon Production Technology: Influencing Factors and Intervention Paths

全球气候变暖引发了各界的关注，由于农业生产对气候变化的高度依赖性和敏感性，气候变化对农业生产的影响已逐步成为农业领域研究的热点问题.低碳农业生产技术可以从根源上减少碳排放，具有较好的发展前景.研究农户采纳水稻低碳生产技术的影响因素和干预路径，对有效推动低碳农业生产技术和中国低碳农业生产具有重要的现实意义.该文基于湖北省水稻产地1 115户农户的调查数据，对农户采纳水稻低碳生产技术的因素进行了分析，并基于改进的UTAUT（技术采纳与利用整合理论）模型构建农户水稻低碳生产技术采纳的概念模型，采用PLS-SEM（基于偏最小二乘法的方差分析法）对农户采纳水稻低碳生产技术的关键影响因素和干预路径进行分析.研究结果表明：①提高农户的气候变化认知有助于提高农户采纳低碳生产技术的意愿；②低碳农业生产技术的实施成本对农户采纳意愿具有显著的负向影响；③农户对低碳农业生产技术的采纳受周围人群的影响较为显著；④技术门槛和实施条件等表征便利条件对农户采纳低碳生产技术具有显著的促进作用.
Global warming has attracted the attention of all walks of life of the world. Due to the fact that agricultural production is highly dependent on and sensitive to climate change, the impact of climate change on agricultural production has gradually become a hot issue in the field of agriculture. Low-carbon agricultural production technology has good prospects for development, for it can reduce carbon emission at the source. Therefore, it is of vital important to analyze the factors and intervention paths of farmers' low-carbon production technology adoption on rice, which can improve the low-carbon technology promotion and production in China. In a study reported in this paper, the factors that influenced farmers' willingness to adopt rice low-carbon production technology were analyzed based on the survey data of 1115 farmer households in Hubei province to achieve this goal, and a conceptual model of low-carbon production technology of rice was constructed based on the modified UTAUT model. PLS-SEM was used as the estimation method to analyze the key factors and key intervention paths of low-carbon rice technology adoption. The results showed that improving the farmers' awareness of climate change can help improve the farmers' willingness to adopt low-carbon production technology; the implementation cost of low-carbon agricultural production technology has a significant negative impact on farmers' adoption willingness; farmers' low carbon adoption can be influenced significantly by the behaviors of the people around; and the technical barriers and the implementation of conditions, such as the convenience of the conditions for farmers to adopt low-carbon production technology, has a significant impact on the agricultural technology promotion. Based on the results above, we suggest that greater efforts should be made to improve propaganda and education about the impact of climate change on agricultural production among the farmers so as to improve their awareness of environmental protection and climate change; the maturity of agricultural low-carbon production technology should be improved and the risk of low-carbon