四川盆地区雾霾灾害风险区划初探
Fog-and-Haze Risk Mapping of Sichuan Basin Area

利用四川盆地区1981-2014年逐日地面气象观测资料和社会经济数据，选取不同等级雾、霾频率作为致灾因子危险性评估指标，以人口密度、公路密度和地均三产业值作为孕灾环境脆弱性影响因子，考虑地形因子、河网密度和地均GDP作为承灾体易损性评估指标，从这3个角度出发，基于GIS技术，运用层次分析法建立影响四川盆地区雾霾灾害的风险评估模型，得到四川省盆地地区的雾霾灾害风险区划结果.分析表明：四川盆地区雾霾灾害风险等级呈现出从盆周山区到盆底区域不断升高的基本特征.高、次高风险区主要集中在盆地底部的大部分区域，与高原接壤的高海拔区域和盆周山区处于雾霾灾害低风险区和次低风险区，与盆周山区相邻的盆底边缘地区大部分为中等风险区，研究结果与实际情况基本相符.
In a study based on the daily ground meteorological observation data and the socio-economic data of Sichuan basin area (1981-2014), multi-level fog and haze frequency was selected as the disaster risk evaluation indicator, population density, traffic density and tertiary industry GDP as the hazard-inducing environment vulnerability indicators, and terrain indices, watercourse density and local GDP as the vulnerability evaluation indices. Starting from the three elements listed above and exploiting the GIS technology, the authors constructed a risk evaluation model by AHP and verified the fog and haze risk mapping of Sichuan basin area. The results demonstrated that the risk level of fog and haze steadily rose from the mountainous regions surrounding the basin to its bottom. High or sub-high risk was mostly at the bottom of the Sichuan basin. The high-altitude areas adjacent to west Sichuan plateau and the mountainous areas surrounding the basin were the low-risk or sub-low-risk areas. The areas located between the margin mountainous areas and the basin bottom were the medium risk area. The above results were proved to be consistent with the reality of Sichuan basin