1955-2014年三峡库区降水特征分析——以重庆市万州区为例
An Analysis of the Characteristics of Precipitation in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area from 1955 to 2014——A Case Study of Wanzhou in Chongqing

利用重庆市万州区1955-2014年的月降水数据，选择线性回归分析、Morlet小波分析和R/S分析方法对三峡库区降水的年际和年代际变化、多时间尺度变化和降水趋势变化特征进行分析.研究表明：近60年三峡库区降水变化总体上呈现出微弱的线性减少趋势，年际和年代际波动较大，各年代降水存在“少-多-少”的变化趋势；三峡库区年降水存在多时间尺度的周期变化，主要有25，16和8年时间尺度的变化，尺度越小则降水变化平均周期越短；此外，由Hurst指数分析结果得出，未来一段时间内，三峡库区的年降水量将会进入相对偏多阶段.
Linear regression analysis, Morlet wavelet analysis and R/S analysis were made of the monthly precipitation data from 1955 to 2014 recorded at Wanzhou National Meteorological Station in Chongqing to study the inter-annual and inter-decade variation, multiple time scale fluctuation and variation trend of precipitation in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. The results indicated that in the past sixty years the precipitation in Three Gorges Reservoir Area, as a whole, presented a slight linear decreasing trend, with fairly obvious inter-annual and inter-decade variations. Precipitation tended to fluctuste in a 'scarce-abundant-scarce' pattern within a decade. The periodic variation of annual precipitation had multiple time scales, which mainly fluctuated with the time scales of 25a, 16a and 8a. The smaller the time scale, the shorter the average period of precipitation variation. It is predicted according to the Hurst index that the annual precipitation in Three Gorges Reservoir Area will increase relatively in the next period