基于变系数回归模型的三峡库区滑坡位移预测
Landslide Displacement Prediction Based on Varying Coefficient Regression Model in Three Gorges Reservoir Area

降雨-库水联合作用影响着三峡库区滑坡，而降雨、库水分别对滑坡演化的贡献及作用规律迄今尚不明确.以库区树坪滑坡和八字门滑坡为例，通过分析降雨和库水位资料，采用变系数回归模型，对滑坡位移进行预测.实验结果表明：经过改进的变系数回归模型方法不仅比传统的线性回归模型、自回归积分滑动平均模型、支持向量机模型方法具有更高的预测精度，而且能定量地给出各影响因素对滑坡位移的贡献.
Landslides in Three Gorges reservoir area are affected by both the rainfall and the reservoir water, but their respective contribution and the laws of the landslide evolution remain unclear. In this paper, we analyzed the rainfall and water level data, and applied a varying coefficient regression model for landslide displacement prediction taking Shuping landslide and Bazimen landslide in the reservoir area as the study area. The results of experiments show that the improved varying coefficient regression model is not only more accurate than traditional linear regression model, auto regressive Integrated moving average model and support vector mchine model, but also it can give quantitative contribution of each factor on the landslide displacement