基于系统动力学的海峡西岸城市群台风灾害风险分析
Risk analysis of typhoon disaster in west side of the strait urban agglomeration based on system dynamics

以海峡西岸城市群为研究对象，以台风灾害为例，基于系统动力学的理论方法，运用Vensim软件对海峡西岸城市群的台风灾害进行仿真模拟，重点围绕建筑物脆弱性指数和政府重视程度这两个变量分析其对台风灾害损失系统的影响. 得出结论：建筑物脆弱性指数可用建筑物灾损率来表征，脆弱性指数越大，建筑物毁坏速率越快；政府重视程度越高，台风监测预警能力与应急处置能力越强. 从长远考虑，降低建筑物脆弱性指数和提高政府重视程度，对降低台风灾害风险具有较为重要的现实意义.
Taking the urban agglomeration on the west side of the strait as the research object，and taking the typhoon disaster as an example，based on the theoretical method of system dynamics，the paper uses Vensim software to simulate typhoon disasters of the urban agglomeration in West Coast and analyses the impact of building vulnerability index and government dependence on typhoon disaster loss system. The conclusion is as follows: the building vulnerability index can be described by the building damage rate，the greater the vulnerability index，the faster the destruction rate of the building.The higher the degree of government attention，the better the typhoon monitoring and emergency response capability. In the long run，reducing the vulnerability index of buildings and increasing the importance of the government is of great realistic significance to abate the risk of typhoon disaster