生态工业园区绿色发展水平趋势预测及驱动力研究
Trend prediction and driving forces of ecological industrial park’s green development level

以绿色经济理论为基础，采用生态工业园区绿色发展水平评价指标体系，结合福州经济技术开发区“十一五”期间绿色发展水平的相关研究成果，并利用灰色系统理论对开发区“十二五”期间的绿色发展水平进行动态预测分析. 结果表明： 指标预测值与实际值整体变化趋势相似，“十二五”时期绿色发展水平总体上保持良好的发展态势. 结合开发区发展实际情况，认为经济利益、资源与生态环境、企业共生水平建立、政策与制度的制定、科技创新是生态工业园区绿色发展的驱动力所在.
Based on the theory of green economy，under the guidance of index system for evaluating the level of EIP green-comprehensive development，combined with the level of green-comprehensive development of Fuzhou Economic and Technological Development Zone (Fuzhou ETDZ) during the 11th Five-Year Plan，and used the grey system theory，we predicted the level of green-comprehensive development during the 12th Five-Year Plan. The results showed that the variation tendency of predicted value was similar to actual value，and the green-comprehensive development level would keep increasing steadily during the 12th Five-Year Plan. Finally，combined with the prediction results and the actual situation of the development of the Fuzhou ETDZ，we find out that the EIP development driving forces are including economic interests，ecological environment，the level of enterprise symbiosis establishment，policy and system，and science and technology innovation