基于Bayes方法的动车组轴箱弹簧可靠性寿命评估
Reliability life evaluation of EMU exle box spring based on bayes method

采用Bayes方法进行动车组轴箱弹簧可靠性寿命评估,提出在小子样条件下利用改进的证据理论合成规则对多源验前信息进行信息融合;轴箱弹簧寿命满足Weibull分布时,在形状参数不变的条件下将该分布转化为指数分布,简化Bayes可靠性评估中后验分布的求解过程。该方法不仅使评估结果更符合实际情况,而且提高了评估结果的准确性。
The reliability life of EMU axle box spring is evaluated by Bayes method. The improved Evidence theory is mentioned and used on information fusion between a variety of prior information on the condition of small sample. When the life of axle box spring satisfies the Weibull distribution, this distribution is converted to the exponential distribution under the situation of keeping the shape parameter invariant. Then the posterior distribution in the process of the Bayes reliability evaluation can be solved. This method can be used to get more practical results and improve the accuracy of the evaluation results