基于系统动力学与logit模型的驮背运输运价研究
Research on piggyback transport price based on system dynamics and logit model

利用logit模型，建立驮背运输与公路运输货运需求分担模型，结合系统动力学，形成驮背运输属性与需求之间的动态反馈仿真模型。在京沪通道货运需求增长率为“高”、“中”和“低”3种情形下，分别对政府定价、市场化运价和市场+调控运价3种运价体制进行仿真，得出3种体制下的较优运价策略，分析3种运价体制的优缺点，提出驮背运输运价发展建议。驮背运输价格仿真模型，提供了一种价格仿真方式，仿真结果为驮背运输的调整提供了参考。
Based on the logit model, this paper built a model of freight demand sharing model between Piggyback transport and Highway freight. Then, a dynamic feedback simulation model, about system dynamics, between property and demand of Piggyback transport was formed. In the case of “high”, “middle” and “low” of freight demand growth rate in the Beijing-Shanghai corridor, this paper simulated Government pricing, Market freight rate and Market & Regulation freight rat. The optimal price strategies under three kinds of freight rate system were obtained through the simulations. This paper analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of the three kinds of freight rate system, and put forward suggestions for the development of piggyback transport price. The simulation model of Piggyback transport freight rate provides a method of price simulation, and the simulation results provide a reference for Tariff Strategy of Piggyback transport