基于脆性联系熵的项目组合脆性风险分析
Brittleness Risk Analysis of Project Portfolio Based on Brittle Link Entropy

摘要 根据复杂系统的脆性理论，分析得出交互效应所构成的项目间的交互耦合结构是项目组合脆性风险的内因。通过对项目组合的交互效应进行量化分析，计算出项目间的脆性联系概率及脆性联系熵，自顶向下地逐步剖析项目组合的脆性风险度量过程，并对项目关联的脆性安全度进行评级，由评级结果可知，结果与资源的交互效应所构成的项目关联，是项目组合脆性风险的关键内因。最后依据脆性风险的度量结果及脆性熵变理论提出项目组合脆性风险的控制策略。
According to the brittleness theory of complex system, the brittleness risk’s internal cause of a project portfolio is proved to be the interactive coupling structure constructed by interaction effects among projects. The purpose of this research is to assess the brittleness risk of a project portfolio with a certain interactive coupling structure and present appropriate measures to control the brittleness risk. The brittleness risk’s measure process of project portfolio is dissected from the top down based on the quantitative analysis of interaction effects. Through calculating the probability and entropy of brittle link between projects, the brittleness safety grade is rated for all project relations composed by interaction effects. According to the rating result, the interaction effects of resource and outcome are the key internal causes of the brittleness risk of project portfolio. Finally, some measures are presented to control the brittleness risk of a project portfolio according to the brittleness assessment results and the brittle entropy change theory