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-  2018 

基于互信息熵的水库实时调度相关分析及预测 Correlation analysis and forecast of real-time reservoir operation based on mutual information entropy

Keywords: 互信息熵,水库实时调度,相关系数,预测模型

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Abstract:

传统的水库实时调度方法在挖掘实际运行数据信息方面存在一定的局限性.充分利用水库实际运行数据的关联特性,运用直方图法、核密度估计法及k最邻近距离法计算互信息熵,揭示与水库调度预测最相关的自变量因素,并准确剔除对水库调度决策变量贡献较少的因素.以筛选的自变量因子作为输入,建立各分期的水库调度预测模型.研究表明,互信息熵识别出的自变量因子进行预测取得了较高的精度并降低了建模的复杂度.该研究为水库调度强关联因素的筛选及预测建模提供了一种新思路

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