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-  2016 

基于贝叶斯方法的模型选择以及岩石性质概率表征 Bayesian model selection and characterization for rock properties

Keywords: 贝叶斯方法,模型选择,不确定性,概率表征,先验信息

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Abstract:

岩土工程勘察中,工程师通常从已知岩土性质间接估计岩土的其他性质.例如,工程师会根据岩样的标准点荷载指标(Is(50))间接估计岩石的单轴抗压强度(uniaxial compressive strength,UCS).间接估计时会应用Is(50)和UCS之间的回归模型,然而,现存文献中这种回归模型众多,使得工程师在具体工程应用中难以选择.基于此,阐述了如何通过贝叶斯方法结合Is(50)数据和现场先验信息选择模型,以及选定模型后如何对UCS进行概率表征.所述方法通过工程实例进行了说明.结果显示,所述方法可以单独依据Is(50)数据以及现场先验信息选出合适的模型.且依据所选模型进行UCS的概率表征结果和工程现场情况相吻合

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