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-  2018 

苏州市水资源变化与主要驱动因素分析 Trend and main driving factors of water resources change in Suzhou City

Keywords: 苏州市,水资源变化,Mann-Kendall检测,双累积曲线,气候弹性模型

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Abstract:

以城市化水平较高的苏州市为研究区域,选用Mann-Kendall趋势检测和突变检测分析该区域水资源近50年的变化趋势和主要驱动因素,并利用双累积曲线和气候弹性模型定量评估驱动因素对径流变化的影响贡献率.结果显示,苏州市水资源量近50年呈显著的上升趋势,且在1991年发生突变;气候变化和城市化为主的人类活动是苏州市水资源变化的主要驱动因素,且都导致径流增大;双累积曲线和气候弹性模型的定量评估结果相似,均显示气候变化的贡献率超过50%,分别为62%和77%;人类活动的贡献率分别为38%和23%.研究成果为苏州市海绵城市规划设计提供决策依据

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