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-  2017 

基于贝叶斯理论的继电保护设备状态评价权重更新方法 Method of weight updating for state evaluation of relay protection equipment based on Bayesian theory

Keywords: 继电保护设备,层次分析法,贝叶斯理论,状态评价,权重

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Abstract:

继电保护设备状态检修工作的开展需要建立在科学的评价之上,而指标权重选取的客观性正是科学合理评价的基础.依照状态评价指标体系的构建规则,筛选出继电保护设备主要状态特征量,构建了相应的评价模型.在根据层次分析法和专家法确定继电保护设备各状态指标权重的基础上,利用贝叶斯理论的先验概率思想,将历史经验和相关结论应用于评价中.进一步提取、融合继电保护设备实际运行数据特征,得到权重的后验分布,对状态量权重进行更为合理的更新.算例证明,基于贝叶斯理论的权重更新,能够更加科学地评价继电保护设备的状态

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