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-  2018 

澜沧江流域中长期径流预报方法研究 Study of medium and long term runoff forecasting method for Lancang River Basin

Keywords: 中长期径流预报,最近邻抽样回归,小波分析,混沌理论,小湾水库

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Abstract:

以澜沧江流域小湾水库为研究对象,分别采用基于时间序列的最近邻抽样回归模型、小波分析方法、混沌理论模型、周期均值叠加法、均生函数模型、前后期径流量相关法和基于水文气象因子的逐步多元回归模型、神经网络模型、支持向量机模型等10种方法对小湾水库逐月入库径流进行预报,分析比较了这10种模型的预报精度.从整体平均上来看,小波分析模型的预报效果最好,同时,各模型枯水期的预报精度比汛期的预报精度要高.结合各个模型的特点及预报精度,可以采用不同的预报方案对各月进行预报,从而为澜沧江流域小湾水库制定未来中长期调度计划提供技术支持

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