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-  2015 

气候变化和人类活动综合影响下的抚河流域径流模拟研究 Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff with HSPF for the Fuhe River Basin

Keywords: 径流,气候变化,人类活动,流域水文模拟程序,抚河流域

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Abstract:

1960年代以来,由于人类活动与气候变化的综合影响,使抚河流域地表水文过程发生显著变化.基于此,本文在趋势分析的基础上,以1960~1970年为基准期,利用流域水文模拟程序(hydrological simulation program-fortran,HSPF)定量分析了1971~1980年、1981~1990年、1991~2000年、2001~2005年4个时段该流域气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响.结果表明:1)1960年以来,抚河流域气温显著变化,而降水、径流深、径流系数等无显著变化;2)相对于基准期1960~1970年,1971~1980年、1981~1990年、1991~2000年、2001~2005年气候变化导致径流量平均增加24.25亿m3,而人类活动则导致径流量平均减少18.62亿m3;气候变化对径流的影响在1970年代和2000年代处于较低水平,在1980年代和1990年代处于较高水平;人类活动对径流的影响,在1970年代处于一个较低水平,而1980年代以后明显增大;3)在气候变化影响因素中,流域降水量是主要影响因子;人类活动影响因素包括土地利用方式的变化以及水利工程的修建;抚河流域下游修建的水利工程是人类活动影响因素中的重要影响因子

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