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- 2018
犯罪网络构建及其时空分析——以入室盗窃为例
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Abstract:
提出了一种基于时空影响范围的网络构造方法，构造了一种基于节点影响强度的犯罪传输网络，并引入复杂网络的度、平均度、聚集系数等特征参数分析犯罪传输网络。提取了犯罪预测过程中需要关注的重要节点，分析了其时间分布和空间分布特性，研究结果表明：（1）近邻的时空单元的犯罪率具有一定的关联关系。其中，节点的出度与入度具有正相关性，因此可以引入邻居时空单元的犯罪密度以量化和分析犯罪规律。（2）节点的度分布具有无标度特性，犯罪较少的小区也可能出现度较大的节点，而节点的度与未来犯罪率具有较大的关联性。因此，即便犯罪率较低的小区也要关注节点的度变化情况。（3）犯罪聚集系数大小与未来犯罪率的变化具有一定的关联性，较高的聚集系数意味着未来犯罪状态的变化
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