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- 2017
云南地区形变观测资料短临异常指标提取
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Abstract:
提出了面应变综合预测指标法，目的是将全球卫星定位系统（global position system，GPS）观测结果应用于地震短临预测。基于云南省GPS连续观测资料，利用GPS高精度数据处理软件（GAMIT/GLOBK）处理后获得位移场。对位移场进行网格化插值获得均匀分布于56个网格的位移场，基于每个网格位移场时间序列求取其面应变时间序列，并对每个网格面应变时间序列的映震能力进行评价、综合，提取出适合于云南地区的地震短临异常识别指标。实践表明，综合预测指标对云南地区2011年以来发生的20次5级以上地震进行3个月短临预测，其中准确预测次数为19次，漏报数为1次，虚报5次，认为该指标对地震发震时间、震中均具有较好的指示意义，可用于云南地区未来的地震短临预测实践
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