经济新常态下城镇化与居民消费的实证分析

基于经济新常态的特点，构建了新型城镇化对于居民消费水平影响的模型，并利用20122014年省级面板数据进行了实证检验.研究发现，在经济新常态的约束下，城镇化的发展可以显著提高农村的人均消费水平而无法显著提高城镇居民消费水平.稳健性检验进一步发现，城镇化进程可以提高沿海和内陆省份农村居民消费；并且对于经济发展水平不同省份的农村居民消费也具有正向推动作用；加入滞后项后城镇化发展对农村和城镇居民消费具有正向和负向的影响.
A model was built to test the effects of new type of urbanization on both rural and urban consumption in China considering the characterristics of the new economic normality, and an empirical research was conducted with the panel data of China’s provinces ranging from 2012 to 2014. It is found that under new economic normality, urbanization rather than urban consumption increases rural consumption. Moreover, the robust tests show that urbanization can improve rural consumption of both the coastal and inland provinces. Furthermore, it can also increase rural consumption of different income provinces. However, it has both positive and negative effects on rural and urban consumptions if adding lags