气候变化对浙江楠潜在分布范围及空间格局的影响

气候变化对物种分布的影响是珍稀濒危物种资源保护研究的热点问题之一。利用Maxent模型预测浙江楠在末次盛冰期、全新世中期、现代和2070年4个历史时期的潜在分布区,分析浙江楠各个历史时期的分布格局,并评估了不同气候因子对其潜在地理分布的影响。结果表明,Maxent模型模拟现代分布区准确度极高,受试者工作特征曲线下的面积(AUC值)达0.996。高度适生区包括浙江省与福建省交汇的武夷山、仙霞岭、浙江东南部的洞宫山、雁荡山等较高海拔山地地带,中度适生区位于幕阜山、罗霄山、怀玉山、武夷山、黄山、天目山、会稽山、雁荡山、洞宫山等低海拔丘陵地区。末次盛冰期浙江楠潜在分布区位于东海大陆架内; 全新世中期分布区与现代相似,但面积更大,向低海拔地区延伸; 2070年潜在分布区有北扩东进的趋势。Jackknife检验表明,影响浙江楠地理分布的主要因子有最干季降水量、最冷季降水量和最干季均温。
The impact of climate change on species distribution is one of the hot spots in rare and endangered species protection research. Based on Maxent model, this article predicted the potential distribution of Phoebe chekiangensis and analyzed its distribution pattern in four historical periods, e.g. last glacial maximum(LGM,21 ka BP), mid-Holocene(6 ka,BP), present and 2070. And, it was also estimated that the influence of different climate factors to the potential geographic distribution of the species. The results showed that the high accuracy of Maxent model for predicting the current potential distribution, the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve(AUC values)was 0.996. The region with high suitability includes the high altitude areas Mt. Wuyi and Mt. Xianxialing at the junction of Zhejiang and Fujian Province, Mt. Gongdong and Mt. Yandang at the southeast of Zhejiang Province. The region with moderate suitability includes the low altitude hilly areas in Mt. Mufu, Mt.Luoxiao, Mt.Huaiyu, Mt.Wuyi, Mt.Huangshan, Mt.Tianmu, Mt.Kuaiji, Mt.Yandang and Mt.Gongdong, e.g. During the LGM, the potential distribution region of P. chekiangensis located at the East China Sea continental shelf. In the mid-Holocene, the potential distribution region with very high suitability became similar to that of the present but more larger area, and extended to low altitude areas. P. chekiangensis have the tendency to expand its distribution to northward and eastward under 2070 climate condition. Jackknife test showed the main factors which effected the potential distribution of P. chekiangensis were precipitation of driest quarter, precipitation of coldest quarter, mean temperature of driest quarter