突发事件下邮轮应急疏散模拟及其验证

以社会力模型为基础，基于Anylogic平台建立邮轮人员疏散模型，并利用欧洲“SAFEGUARD”项目的演习数据进行模型验证.鉴于“SAFEGUARD”项目公开数据中的人员移动速度与移动路径未知，本文通过设置不同参数对模型中人员移动速度与路径选择规划进行敏感度测试.实验结果表明，本文建立的模型符合IMO模型认证标准，模拟结果合理可信，可为邮轮疏散情境模拟、疏散方案优化提供一定的决策支持.
A social force-based (SF-based) passenger ship evacuation model was established by using Anylogic software. Meanwhile, the drill data in European “SAFEGUARD” project was used to validate the proposed model. As moving speed and moving path of people in “SAFEGUARD” were unknown, the sensitivity test of the moving speed and path selection planning in the model was carried out by setting different parameters. Results indicate that the proposed model can meet the criteriou proposed in IMO guidelines, thus the simulation result is credible and reasonable, which can provide valuable decision supports for scenariobased passenger ship evacuations as well as the optimization of evacuation design.