基于熵权法的东北航道LNG船舶经济效益评价

为深入研究东北航道LNG船舶的经济效益，在分析东北航道通航现状以及北极资源的基础上，结合我国天然气供需状况，对通航北极东北航道和通航传统航道运输LNG的船舶经济效益进行比较.选择船舶营运指标、船舶经济指标、船舶投资指标构建船舶经济效益综合评价指标体系，采用熵权法对评价指标赋权，建立基于熵权法的LNG船舶经济效益评价模型.选取8个舱容为12.5万m3~16万m3的LNG船舶进行经济效益论证，并与主成分分析法结果进行对比.结果表明：舱容为14万m3的LNG船舶通航东北航道综合经济效益最佳; 熵权法能够对LNG船舶经济效益做出科学评价，为东北航道LNG船舶经济效益评价提供了一种可行的评价方法.
In order to further study the economic benefits of LNG ship through the Northeast Passage, combining the supply and demand of natural gas in China, the economic benefits of LNG ship through the Arctic Northeast Passage and the traditional route were compared based on the analysis of the navigable status of the Northeast Passage and the Arctic resources. The ship operation index, ship economic index and ship investment index were selected to construct the comprehensive evaluation index system of ship economic benefit. The entropy weight method was used to evaluate the weights of the evaluation indexes, and a LNG ship economic benefit evaluation model based on entropy weight method was established. The economic benefits of 8 ships with 125 thousand m3~160 thousand m3 LNG capacity were demonstrated and compared with the results of principal component analysis. Results show that the comprehensive economic benefit of the LNG ship with navigable capacity of 140 thousand m3 is the best. Entropy weight method can make a scientific evaluation of the economic benefits of LNG ships, which provides a feasible evaluation method for the economic benefit evaluation of LNG ships through the Arctic Northeast Passage.