基于R聚类和变异系数的原油水上过驳风险评价指标体系

为保障原油锚地水上过驳作业的安全，及时发现作业过程中存在的风险，在文献检索、专家访谈和实地调研的基础上，确定初步的原油水上过驳风险评价指标.设计、发放调查问卷，对返回问卷获得的数据应用聚类分析和变异系数分析相结合的方法,对所确定的初步指标进行筛选，并根据专家对指标筛选结果的反馈意见，完善原油水上过驳风险评价指标体系.以钦州港为例进行实证分析. 结果表明，构建的原油水上过驳风险评价指标体系是可靠的.研究成果既可为原油水上过驳风险评价等相关理论研究提供参考，也可为原油水上过驳作业安全的相关决策提供依据.
In order to ensure the safety of ship-to-ship crude oil transfer at sea and discover the potential risks of the operation timely, the risk evaluation system of ship-to-ship crude oil transfer was established based on the review of the previous literatures, the expert interviews and field research. Then, questionnaires were designed and distributed according to the initial risk evaluation indicators, and a quantitative screening method based on the cluster analysis and coefficient of variation was used with the data collected from the returned questionnaires. And according to the feedback from experts on the index screening result, the risk evaluation index system of ship-to-ship crude oil transfer was improved. The port of Qinzhou was taken as an example to verify the reliability of the proposed risk evaluation index system. Results show that the proposed risk evaluation index system is reliable, which can provide a reference not only for the theoretical research about the risk evaluation of ship-to-ship crude oil transfer, but also for decision-making of the safety of ship-to-ship crude oil transfer operation.