基于元胞自动机的施工场内交通流建模及安全分析

在元胞自动机（CA）模型的基础上，建立水电工程施工场内的交通流模型.考虑道路的纵坡坡度、驾驶员心理素质和车辆性能的差异的影响，定义随机慢化概率和换道概率.为了研究交通事故与车头距的关系，引入交通事故发生规则，在低速和中速两种情况下分析不同车头距下发生交通事故的可能性.通过对实际数据与仿真结果的对比，验证了交通流模型的正确性.在低速和中速两种情况下仿真得到的安全距离与相应规范的实际数值的误差均在允许范围之内.
Abstract: A traffic flow model in hydropower construction was proposed based on cellular automata (CA). The model considered the difference of slope, drivers' psychological quality and dump trucks' performance. The function of randomization probability and the function of lane-changing probability were defined. Traffic accident rules were introduced in order to analyze the relationship between traffic accident and headway distance. The probability of occurrence of traffic accident was analyzed under different headway distance with low speed and median speed. The traffic flow model was verified by comparing simulation result with real data. The safety distance obtained from simulation with low speed and median speed was similar to that in corresponding norm, and the error was acceptable.