金融在中国双向直接投资中的作用与影响机制分析

中国外资经济已经进入到大规模利用外商直接投资与本地企业对外直接投资同时大规模发展阶段,这对中国经济乃至世界经济产生了重要影响。在中国双向直接投资发展过程中,先有外商直接投资持续多年流入,再有对外直接投资短期迅速发展。研究外商直接投资流入对中国本地企业对外直接投资发展的影响,有利于总结中国外资经济发展经验,揭示中国外资经济发展规律。本文根据中国与188个国家(经济体)之间2003年至2015年的双边FDI存量面板数据,通过测度金融发展水平,构建中国金融发展绝对指标和相对指标,运用部分存货调整模型,分析了金融因素对中国双向FDI发展的影响。本文研究表明,中国吸引外商直接投资有利于中国本地企业发展对外直接投资。中国吸引外商直接投资进入对发展本地企业对外直接投资的促进作用与金融发展有关;人均贷款规模等金融总量规模扩张、直接融资占社会融资规模比重等金融市场结构完善,以及国内私营部门信贷比等金融服务效率提高,均有助于中国从吸引外商直接投资发展到对外直接投资。
Abstract：China's Two-way FDI has developed simultaneously at a large scale in recent years, which has important impacts on China's economy and world economy. OFDI has grown quickly in a short term after China utilized IFDI for nearly 30 years. It is significant to sum up China's experience and principles under China's two-way FDI development by analyzing the mechanisms of IFDI's influence on OFDI.This paper constructs some absolute and relative indicators of China's financial development. Based on bilateral FDI stock panel data between China and 188 economies from 2003 to 2015 and by using Partial Inventory Adjustment model, we analyze the influence of financial development on China's two-way FDI development and the influence of China's inward FDI on its outward FDI. The results show that China's financial size expansion such as loan size per person have significant effects on China's two-way FDI development. Financial structure improvement such as credit-gain ability of private sector and financial efficiency such as direct finance fraction have also been beneficial to China's two-way FDI development; Inward FDI is in favor of outward FDI; the effect of FDI inflow on the promotion of China's OFDI is relative to China's financial development.