人民币参考一篮子货币汇率形成与调整机制研究

2016年人民币对美元汇率和人民币有效汇率双双出现较大幅度贬值,用现行的人民币参考一篮子货币汇率形成机制难以做出很好的解释。本文的研究发现其原因在于参考一篮子货币汇率制度缺乏透明、有效地灵活反映宏观经济变动的汇率调整机制。本文在深入分析汇率与宏观经济变动关系的基础上,探讨设计了参考一篮子货币汇率制度灵活反映宏观经济内外均衡变动的汇率调整机制。该机制采用贸易差占比和通胀率两项指标作为衡量宏观经济内外均衡的指标,并参考资本流动对一篮子货币汇率目标做长期趋势调整。文章利用中国汇改以来的数据模拟检验了该汇率调整机制的有效性,并指出近期人民币的大幅贬值源于前期人民币的过度升值,贬值是对汇率失衡的反应。
Abstract：RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar and the RMB effective exchange rate both appear more significant devalued in 2016, that is difficultly to explant with the current RMB exchange rate formation mechanism that referred to a basket of currencies. This paper finds that the reason for above question is lack of a transparent and effective exchange rate adjustment mechanism in exchange rate regime referred to a basket of currencies. Based on the in-depth analysis of the relationship between exchange rate and macroeconomic changes, this paper discusses the exchange rate adjustment mechanism in exchange rate regime referred to a basket of currencies. The mechanism uses two indicators of trade differences and inflation rate as a measure of internal and external balance of macro economy and do long-term trend adjustment reference to the capital flows. According to the data since the reform of the exchange rate regime of RMB, this paper simulated to test the validity of the exchange rate adjustment mechanism, and points out that the excessive appreciation of the RMB caused the devaluation of RMB in the early stage of the source, and the depreciation is reaction of the imbalance.