经济增长与社会发展研究中国经济的结构性调整方式与政策设计——基于新、旧结构经济学对比的视角

中国经济的结构性调整需要以专门探讨结构性问题的经济理论作为支撑。但现有的新、旧结构经济学在发展战略和政策主张上却有重大差异,它们分别从比较优势和先动优势的角度来论证发展中国家实现产业结构改善和经济稳定增长的路径,一时让人难以取舍。从其理论碰撞和对中国经济的现实观察中可知,中国现阶段经济结构的核心特征是政府投资的“互补”力量和“诱致”力量不足所积累起来的,需要引入特定的投资模型来设计行之有效的结构调整方案。本文从投资顺序、投资范围(公共服务或生产性投资),以及投资的动机、能力、决策与多部门协调的角度,对新、旧结构经济学的关键环节进行分析,力图从“稳”、“活”、“托底”的角度设计以恰当、准确的投资方案,希冀解决中国经济结构调整的难题。一是把握投资顺序,市场起决定性作用,政府起引导作用;二是把握关键节点,让投资适应新兴产业革命的趋势;三是以解决民生难题为着眼点,引导中国跳出低水平陷阱并规避中等收入陷阱。既使投资变量成为持续改善我国要素禀赋结构的手段,也让投资保底机制贯穿到改革的全过程,实现新、旧结构经济学力图达致的结构调整目标。
Abstract：China's economic structural adjustment needs to specifically discuss the structural problems in economic theory as its support. But the current new and old structural economics on the development strategy and policy proposals have significant differences, respectively from the perspective of comparative advantages, and first-mover advantage to argue that the developing countries realize the improvement of industrial structure and economic stable growth path. From the theory collision and the reality of China's economic observation, it shows that the core of China's present economic structure characteristic is the “complementary power” of the government investment and the lack of “inducing power”, accumulated by the need to introduce specific investment model to tease structure adjustment and effective solution. From the investment order, investment scope (public service or productive investment), investment motivation, ability, decision-making and multisectoral coordination angle, this paper try to pitch-in on the economics of the new and old structural analysis of the key link from “stable”, “flexible”, and “bottoming” angles of the design with proper and accurate investment programs to improve China's economic structural adjustment problems. First is to grasp the investment order: the market is crucial and the government plays a guiding role; Second is to grasp the key point, adapting investment to the new trend of industrial revolution; Third is to solve the problem of people's livelihood as the starting point, leading China out of the low-level trap and avoiding the middle-income trap. It not only makes variable investment to improve country's endowment structure, but also enables guaranteed mechanism to work through the whole process of the reform of investment.