融合、竞争与中美经贸关系的再锚定

融合与竞争并存是当前中美两国经贸关系发展的突出趋势。这两种趋势都有着相对应的理论逻辑,在现实中也有典型的案例表现。融合主要表现为两国贸易依存度的进一步上升、投资流量和存量的稳步增加以及政府间各种对话机制的不断完善,竞争主要表现为人民币加入“特别提款权”一篮子货币后与美元的新互动以及中美两国在经贸规则领域的新博弈。中国力推的亚洲基础设施投资银行开始正式运营和美国主导的“跨太平洋伙伴关系”基本达成协议这两大事件,突出地反映了中美为规则正在进行潜在竞争。从构建新型大国关系以及维护双方长期根本利益出发,中美两国政府要确保双边经贸关系稳步发展,避免规则层面的恶性竞争和对抗,抑制可能的脱钩苗头。在现有的各种政策选项中,双边投资协定是最具有价值和现实意义的。该协议对于拓展中美两国经济利益、深化双边关系发展、促成亚太地区和平发展以及推动全球经济治理都具有突出的作用。在双方元首的共同推动下,两国围绕此协议进行深入谈判,但也面临严重阻碍。中美要展示政治决断力,加快谈判进程,争取尽快达成双边投资协定,把中美双边关系再次锚定在基于和平稳定和共同繁荣的总体发展方向上。
Abstract：The coexistence of cooperation and competition is to highlight the current trend of Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations. Both trends have a corresponding theoretical logic. In reality, there are typical cases. Cooperation is mainly reflected in those things such as the further rise in bilateral trade dependence, the steady increase in investment, and the constant improvement of the dialogue mechanisms between the two governments. Competition can be summarized as the new interaction between the Chinese currency Yuan and US dollar as well as the new rival for economic and trade rules. Two events highlight the ongoing US-China competition for rules. One is Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank initiated by China started operations. For another, the agreement of TPP led by America has been reached. From the construction of new pattern of relationship between major powers and safeguard the fundamental interests of both countries in a long-term view, China and the US government should ensure the steady development of bilateral economic and trade relations, avoid vicious competition and confrontation in the field of rules, and prevent the decoupling of two economies. Among all the available policy options, bilateral investment agreement between China and U.S. is the most valuable and of practical significance, which can expand China-U.S. economic interests, deepen bilateral relations, and contribute to the peaceful development of the Asia-Pacific region and promote global economic governance. In the joint efforts of the two heads of state, the two countries conducted intensive negotiations around this agreement, but also faced with serious obstacles. China and the US should show political resolve to speed up the negotiation process so as to re-anchor in the overall direction of development based on peace, stability and common prosperity.