住宅建筑建材准备阶段能耗和碳排放灰色分析——以合肥地区为例

建筑生命周期内，尤其是建材准备阶段的能耗和碳排放统计数据相对较少，缺乏精度高且可操作性强的模型.将非等间距灰色系统预测模型应用于合肥地区住宅建筑建材准备阶段能耗和碳排放的分析预测，获得住宅建筑建材准备阶段能耗和碳排放的预测公式，经后验差检验显示预测结果具有足够的精度水平.在此基础上，提出以标准煤作为参考指标的单位碳排放条件下能源利用能力的评价指标.通过对比发现，建材准备阶段单位碳排放条件下的能源利用能力具有较大的提升空间.
The statistics of energy consumption and carbon emission of building during the whole life have the characteristics of poverty and great fluctuation in China, especially during the preparing stage of building materials. Further, analysis models to predict the energy consumption and carbon emission with high-accuracy and operability have not yet been developed. In the present study, the unequal interval grey model was introduced for the analysis and prediction of the energy consumption and carbon emission of the residential building materials at preparation stage in Hefei City. The test results with sufficient accuracy were obtained according to the posterior-variance-test. An evaluation index selecting the standard coal as the reference was proposed on the basis of the proposed model to express the energy utilization ability under unit carbon emission. The prediction results show that the energy utilization ability of building materials at preparation stage is still much lower, which can be improved considerably by comparing with the reference index. The proposed method can be employed to evaluate the energy utilization carbon emission in other building form as well as the unfinished deserted building and vacant house.