国有投资对民间投资的溢出效应研究——兼论外商投资在其中的作用发挥

摘要 近年来民间投资的趋势性急速下行及其与国有投资间“剪刀差”的快速扩大引起社会各界的广泛担忧。从投资主体结构视角，利用TVP-VAR模型的研究发现，三类投资均受到自身冲击的强烈影响，国有投资在短期内对民间投资具有挤出效应，但在长期表现为挤入效应，外商投资的溢出效应则与之相反。国有投资的短期挤出效应与民营经济部门信心的弱化是民间投资锐减的重要原因，需要可预见的长期性优惠措施的出台及市场、法制与金融环境的真实改善，以促进民间投资的健康发展。
Abstract：In recent years， the rapid decline in the trend of private investment and the quick expansion of the gap between the private and the state-owned investment have caused widespread concern among the whole community. From the perspective of main investment structure， the research using TVP-VAR model found that all three types of investment are strongly influenced by their own impact. The state-owned investment has a crowding-out effect on private investment in the short term， but in the long run it is a crowding-in effect. The spillover effect of foreign investment is just the opposite. The short-term crowding-out effect of state-owned investment and the weakening of confidence in private economic sectors are the important reasons for the sharp decline in private investment， which needs the introduction of predictable long-term incentives and the real improvement of the market， the legal system and the financial environment， to promote the healthy development of private investment.