论美国政府公共债务的可持续性基于ADL模型的实证研究

摘要 随着世界经济缓慢复苏，不断攀升的政府债务问题正困扰着美国、日本及欧洲多个国家，这其中美国政府债务问题尤为引人关注。以1959—2013年美国基本预算盈余/赤字、公共债务规模等相关数据为基础，构建了自回归分布滞后(ADL)模型，并对美国政府公共债务可持续性问题进行了分析，研究结果表明:政府预算赤字/盈余、公共债务规模、预期通货膨胀、经济波动指标等变量之间存在门限协整关系。美国政府预算充分考虑了债务规模的膨胀及经济周期等因素，这保障了公共债务呈现出向其均衡稳态回归的特征，不存在爆炸性增长的可能，保证了美国公共债务的可持续。
Abstract：Along with the gradual resuscitation of world economy， the rising government debt has become a major obstacle to such countries as USA， Japan， and many European countries， among which USA stands out. Based on the data of US primary budget surplus/deficit and its public debt scale from 1959 to 2013， the ADL model was built to analyze the sustainability of US government public debt. The results showed that there exists a threshold cointegrating relationship among such variables as government budget surplus/deficit， public debt scale， anticipated inflation， and business cycle indicators. The US government budget takes full consideration of such factors as debt scale inflation and economic cycle so as to make sure that the public debt takes on a balanced and steady returning and avoids possible explosive growth， thus guaranteeing the sustainability of US government public debt.