基于响应面和MCMC的齿轮接触疲劳可靠性

摘要 针对齿轮接触失效，建立带有安装与制造误差的齿轮参数化模型，通过大变形显式动力学仿真软件来模拟齿面动态接触应力.然后，根据应力-强度干涉模型，建立齿轮响应面状态函数.为了提高齿轮响应面功能函数的拟合精度，提出了一种基于响应面和Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)的可靠性分析方法，并进行可靠性灵敏度分析，以定量概率反映安装误差、制造误差及外载荷等随机因素对齿轮传动可靠性的影响程度.最后，将Monte Carlo模拟100000次的计算结果与所提方法的结果进行比较，验证了可靠性分析方法的正确性.
Abstract：A parameterized model of the gear with assembly and manufacturing errors was established for the gear contact failure， and the dynamic tooth surface contact stress was simulated by using the large-deformation explicit dynamics simulation software. Then， the response performance function of the gear was built by the stress-strength interference model. A reliability analysis method based on response surface and the Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC) was proposed to improve the precision of the response performance function， and the dependability sensitivity analysis was conducted to quantify the effects of assembly errors， machining errors and stochastic external loads on gear transmission reliability. Finally， the correctness of this method was verified by comparing the results of 100000 Monte Carlo simulations with the results of the as-proposed method.