综合管廊多灾种耦合致灾风险评价方法

摘要 针对综合管廊灾害防护方面的不足，对其多灾种耦合致灾的风险评价方法进行研究，并对包头市新都中心区综合管廊潜在的灾害进行危险性分析.首先对综合管廊可能发生的单一灾种建立危险评价指标；然后针对综合管廊可能发生的多种灾害，应用模糊数学方法，建立耦合度模型，得到多灾种之间的耦合关系；最后提出综合管廊多灾耦合致灾的风险评价方法.提出的风险评价方法可以用于综合管廊在各种灾害下的安全评价，对城市综合管廊防灾减灾政策制定及综合规划有指导意义.
Abstract：The risk assessment method of multi-disaster coupled hazard was studied in view of the shortcomings in the aspect of disaster prevention for utility tunnel， and a comprehensive risk analysis on the hazards of urban utility tunnel in Baotou Xindu central district was carried out. First， the single disaster risk assessment indicators for the potential disaster in utility tunnel was set up. Then， the coupled model regarding on multi-disaster in the utility tunnel was established in order to get the coupling relationship between multiple disasters. Finally， a risk assessment method was proposed for the multi-disaster coupled hazard. The risk assessment method proposed can be used to evaluate the safety of the urban utility tunnel under various disasters， which is of great significance to policy making and comprehensive planning of urban utility tunnel.