现役船体结构可靠性评估理论研究现状及展望

作为现役船体结构可靠性评估的关键技术，可靠性评估理论直接决定了可靠性评估结果的有效性和置信度。从可靠性评估理论的计算原理、度量指标计算及工程应用等方面阐述了传统可靠性评估理论和非概率可靠性评估理论的发展历程及研究现状，分析、总结了各可靠性评估理论在现役船体结构可靠性中的优势及不足，给出了今后开展相关研究的展望，并指出了现役船体结构可靠性研究的重点。 
As the key technology of reliability evaluation for hull structure in-service, the merits of the reliability assessment theories determines the effectiveness and confidence level of the reliability evaluation result directly. The development course and current research situation of traditional reliability assessment theories and non-probabilistic reliability assessment theory were elaborated in the view of calculation principle, computing of measurement index and engineering application. Simultaneously, the advantages and disadvantages of all current reliability assessment theories that applied in hull structure in-service were analyzed and summarized. The future research outlook was developed and the focus in the study of hull structure reliability was outlined.