经济新常态下相机抉择的财政政策效果研究——基于市场情绪波动性的视角

选择城镇投资环比增长率、财政支出累计增长率、财政支出与广义货币供应量同比增长率比值这3个变量并收集到相关数据，建立GARCH、TGARCH模型，重点研究财政政策在实施的过程中市场情绪波动对投资行为产生的影响，从而进一步分析在经济新常态下财政政策的实施效果.结果显示，财政政策的实施对私人投资产生了挤出效应，但挤出的空间有限；财政政策与货币政策同时实施，产生协同作用，如果加大财政政策的实施力度，反而刺激了投资的增加.政策实施过程中，市场情绪对投资行为的波动影响是持久的，这种影响的效果随时间的推移逐渐减弱，对未来的预测有重要参考意义.当不利消息影响市场情绪时，财政政策的实施使这种负面因素对投资波动的冲击变小；经济步入新常态以后，由于经济发展速度的减缓，投资者的行为趋于谨慎.
Abstract：Establishing the models of GARCH and TGARCH based on related data collected through three variables, the growth rate of urban investment, the cumulative growth rate of fiscal expenditure, and the year-on -year growth rate of fiscal expenditure and broad money supply, the impacts of market volatility on investment behavior in the process of implementing fiscal policies was studied, and the effect of the fiscal policies under the new economic normal was further analyzed. The results show that the implementation of fiscal policies has a crowding-out effect on private investment, but the resulting space is limited. Fiscal policies act synergistically with monetary policies for the enforcement of fiscal policies stimulates the increase of investment instead. In the process of policy implementation, the influence of market sentiment on investment behavior is lasting, which decreases gradually over time and has an important reference value for future projections. When the negative news affects market sentiment, the implementation of fiscal policies weakens the effect of negative factors on the investment fluctuations; as the economy steps into the new normal, investor behavior tends to be cautious due to the slow pace of economic development.