生命历程视角的城市低收入家庭住房保障需求研究——基于2008年和2011年广州住房调查数据的分析

摘要 住房保障供需不匹配引发的社会问题，正越来越受到广泛关注。从生命历程视角对2008年和2011年广州住房调查数据分析后发现，低收入群体的教育程度和收入水平低，工作不稳定，重症残疾和离异丧偶比例高。居民的产权型保障需求在生命周期内呈倒U形趋势，30岁后产权型保障意愿显著下降。年龄越大、教育和收入水平越低、工作越不稳定和有学龄期子女的家庭选择租赁型保障比重越高、接受的通勤时间越短。急遽的社会和政策变迁影响特定家庭或世代的住房保障需求，特殊家庭受不利因素影响的程度更深，也更需要住房保障。住房保障目标应为低收入家庭生命历程的延续提供支持，保障房的规划布局和社区服务应考虑低收入家庭的生命历程，实现住房保障供给与需求有效匹配。
Abstract： In recent years,social problems caused by the mismatch of housing security supply and demand have attracted much attention.An analysis of the housing survey data of Guangzhou residents in 2008 and 2011 from the perspective of life course shows that low income residents have the characteristics of low education level,low income,job instability,and high percentage of serious illness,disability or psychosis,divorce or the death of a spouse.Low income residents' property type security demand has an inverted U-shaped trend during their life cycles,which drops significantly after the age of thirty.Those families who have low education level,low incomes,job instability,and have school-age children would prefer to rent houses,and favor shorter commute.Social events,including dramatic changes of national policies,affect specific cohorts and groups' housing demand.These special families are affected much more negatively by such social events,and need more housing security.This paper suggests that the purpose of housing security is to provide support for low income families,the design of housing security system,the planning of security housing,and community services should take housing security objects' life course into consideration,and balance the supply and demand of security housing.