商品房凡伯伦效用及博弈分析:商品房价格和需求量同向变动的新解释

摘要 在消费者房价上涨预期、商品房逐渐增强的投资属性和炫耀属性以及我国商品房刚性需求的放大等四种力量的作用下，商品房已经成为一种凡伯伦商品。商品房对消费者的效用不仅取决于商品房本身的使用价值，更取决于商品房给消费者带来的社会效用。据此，通过假设需求曲线向上倾斜，利用动态博弈理论，分析房地产商与消费者之间的博弈行为，发现在当期房价决策中，房价上涨对房地产商和上期购房的消费者都是最优选择，且房价上涨会刺激商品房需求进一步增大。这对2009年至2013年中国房地产市场量价齐升现象提出了新的解释。
Abstract： It is the consumer's expectation of future price increases, investment attribute and flaunt attribute, rigid demand for house that make commodity houses become a kind of Veblen good. The utility of a commodity house is constituted by not only its use value, but also its social utility. Using dynamic game theory to analyze the behavior between real estate development enterprise and consumers when demand curve slopes upward, this paper finds that in the current period, keeping house price rising is the optimum choice for real estate development enterprise and consumers who have bought houses, and the increase of property price will stimulate housing demand further. This is a new explanation for the volume and price going up simultaneously between 2009 and 2013.