产业结构和人力资本对城市的影响——基于住房供给视角

摘要 伴随经济新常态的到来，以及供给侧改革的展开，中国城市相继出台人口和产业调整政策，积极探索可持续的城市发展道路。城市人口、劳动力市场和住房市场是城市体系的重要组成部分，因此，有必要探讨城市采取上述调整策略时对它们的影响。基于Glaeser等（2006）提出的住房供给和城市发展理论模型，通过对中国地级及以上城市2005—2013年统计数据的实证分析后发现，住房供给弹性是联系住房市场与城市宏观经济的重要渠道：以产业结构和人力资本为代表的经济增长驱动因素对城市人口、工资和房价带来影响时，住房供给富有弹性的城市表现出较快的人口增速和较小的工资和房价涨幅。该机制从供给角度揭示了住房市场在人口及产业政策制定过程中的作用，对实现城市可持续发展具有重要借鉴作用。
Abstract： Along with the economic context of New Normal, and the development of supply side reform, Chinese cities have successively introduced adjustment policy regarding to population and industry, and actively explored healthy and sustainable development path. Given the role of housing market in shaping urban economic and social environment as well as the benefit for urban transformation, it is necessity to explore the relationship between housing market and urban basic structure such as population and industry. Referring to the empirical analysis of the housing supply and urban development theory proposed by Glaeser et al.(2006), this thesis finds that the housing supply elasticity is an important channel to link the housing market and the urban macro economy based on the data of Chinese prefecture-level cities between 2005 and 2013. Cities with elastic housing supply market tend to display faster population growth as well as smaller increase in wage and housing price, facing employment demand shock. Based on the mechanism, this thesis reveals the role of housing market on designing policies on population and industry, which provides significant reference for sustainable development of cities.