全面二孩政策背景下的城镇女性劳动参与：理论、实证与政策框架

摘要 通过构建城镇女性劳动参与影响因素评价模型，对调研数据进行验证性因子分析与实证检验，在解析影响路径的基础上，运用Probit模型与Dprobit模型对各因素影响城镇女性劳动参与的可能性及其边际效用进行分析，结果显示：个人月平均收入、提供家庭补助与税收减免、工作时间的灵活性对城镇女性劳动参与具有显著的积极影响，个人月平均收入影响最为显著；6岁及以下孩子数量、家庭月平均收入对女性劳动参与的影响消极。通过逐步实现政府主导的"婴儿所、托儿所、幼儿园"一体化学龄前儿童社区看护，对育后女性提供家庭补助或税收减免，完善就业指导服务体系并进行分类帮扶，鼓励用人单位实施"柔性工作模式"等，可帮助城镇女性兼顾生育与就业，为全面二孩政策的有效推行保驾护航。
Abstract： By constructing the evaluation model of influencing factors of urban female labor participation, confirmatory factor analysis and empirical test are carried out on the research data. On the basis of analyzing the influence path, using Probit and Dprobit model, this thesis analyzes the impact of the factors on urban female's labor participation probability and marginal utility. The results show that the average monthly income, family allowances and tax relief and working time flexibility have significant positive influence on female labor participation. The number of children under 6 years and average monthly income of the family have negative influence on female labor participation. We should gradually realize the integrated "baby nursery, nursery, kindergarten" community care system for preschool, which is dominated by the government. We need to provide family assistance or tax relief for women after childbirth and improve employment guidance service system to help women smooth employment. Encouraging employers to implement flexible working mode is vital to assist urban women both growth and employment and escort the effective implementation of the comprehensive two child policy.