住房市场结构对房价的影响研究——基于租赁市场比例的视角

摘要 基于城镇住户调查数据和城市层面的统计数据，构建全国152个地级市的面板数据，从供给侧角度考察住房市场结构对房价的影响效应。实证结果表明，住房租赁市场的发展对房价存在着显著的抑制影响，平均而言，一个城市的住房租赁比例每上升1个百分点，该城市住房价格降低约0.2%-0.3%。进一步的区域异质性分析表明，这种影响效应主要体现在东部城市，而在中西部城市并不显著。另外，在房价收入比更高的城市，住房租赁市场比例提高对房价的抑制效应更大，更有利于挤出泡沫。研究结论显示，加快培育和发展住房租赁市场既可以增加居民住房选择、推进"租购并举"，也有助于抑制投机泡沫，是构建房地产市场健康稳定长效机制的基石所在。
Abstract： This paper examines the effect of the housing tenure structure of urban families on city-level housing price from the perspective of supply side.Combining the Urban Household Survey(UHS)data and city-level level statistics data,this paper constructs a panel data of 152 Chinese prefecture-level cities.The empirical research shows that higher tenant share of urban families has a significant negative effect on housing prices.If the local tenant share of urban families increases by 1%,urban housing prices will decrease by 0.2-0.3%.Further regional-level heterogeneity analysis shows that this effect is mainly manifest in eastern cities,but not in mid-western cities.In addition,in the cities where housing prices are higher,the tenant share of urban families has greater depressing effect on housing prices.The conclusion of this paper shows that speeding up the development of rental housing market can both increase housing options to urban residents and help to curb excessive speculation bubble.