心血管疾病患病率的系统动力学初步研究
Preliminary system dynamics study on incidence of cardiovascular disease

目的 构建针对上海市户籍人口心血管疾病患病率的系统动力学仿真模型，模拟心血管疾病流行发展过程并预测相关发展趋势。方法 根据心血管疾病危险因素研究现状，搭建针对心血管疾病患病率的系统动力学模型结构，并采用文献研究法获得相关危险因素的研究数据，完成对应模型的模拟、修正与检验。结果 模型模拟了2002—2010年上海市户籍人口心血管疾病的流行数据，模拟结果与历史数据较为吻合。在数据测试通过的基础上，对2020年上海市户籍人口的心血管疾病流行状况进行了预测。结论 模型能够模拟并预测在心血管疾病危险因素没有受到干预的情况下上海市户籍人口每年新增心血管疾病患病人群数量，进而为有效干预政策的提出提供相应理论支持。
： Objective To build a system dynamics simulation model for incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Shanghai registered population, simulate the development process of CVD and predict the development trend. Methods A system dynamics model structure for incidence of CVD was constructed according to current studies on risk factors in CVD. Data of related risk factors were obtained via literature research. The corresponding model was simulated, corrected, and verified. Results The resultant model simulated the data of CVD during 2002-2010 in Shanghai registered population and simulation results matched the historical data very well. The incidence of CVD in Shanghai registered population in 2020 was predicted based on successful data test. Conclusion This model can simulate and predict the annual increase in CVD population in Shanghai registered population if risk factors in CVD are not affected and provide theoretic support for developing efficient intervention policies