低碳农业发展的途径、潜力和间接减排效应
Abatement approach,potential and indirect effect in low carbon agriculture development

在应对气候变化上,农业同样可以发挥减排增汇的作用。本文以上海为例,将DNDC (denitrification—decomposition)模型与CGE (computable general equilibrium)模型在作物投入产出上进行链接,对肥料管理、农药减量以及农机节能这3个渠道采取措施进行减排的潜力以及间接效应进行了研究。研究发现,肥料管理的减排作用最突出,是低碳农业发展的主要途径。保护性耕作会促进甲烷排放,法从整体上实现减排作用。种植业上的低碳发展措施能够联动能源消耗上的减排,尤其表现在农机节能方面。需要注意的是,种植业中间投入的削减会促使生产成本下降较快,这将扩张种植面积,导致直接排放回弹,在一些情景中表现为总排放量净增长。
To cope with climate change,agriculture could also play a positive role in emission mitigation and sink enhancement.The paper,taking Shanghai as an example,combined the DNDC(DeNitrification—DeComposition) model and CGE(Computable General Equilibrium)model according to the input-output relationship of crop industry,and used the hybrid model to measure the direct and indirect abatement effects of fertilizer management,pesticide reduction and energy saving of agriculture machine.The study found that the abatement effect of fertilizer management was outstanding,and fertilizer management would be the main way to realize the low carbon agriculture development.Conservation tillage would promote methane emission,and failed to achieve emission reduction on the whole.Emission from energy utilization could be cut by the abatement measures in crop industry,especially the energy conservation in machineries.Note that reduction of agricultural inputs would decrease the production cost and expand the planting area,resulting in the direct emission rebound and net increase of total emission in some scenarios.