哪种减排方式更具优势,肥料替代还是能源替代？——基于上海地区DNDC-CGE模型的效益成本分析
Which measure of emission mitigation is better,fertilizer replacement or energy substitution? ——A cost-effectiveness assessment based on DNDC-CGE model

通过构建上海地区的DNDC-CGE模型,模拟有机肥替代化肥施用的情景,并与能源替代减排做横向比较,从而对肥料替代减排的成本效益进行综合评估。研究发现,在折纯量不变的前提下,化肥替代不会影响农业产量,同时能有效减少种植业的直接排放,并在能源活动以及禽畜粪便管理两方面发挥协同减排作用,后者的减排潜力尤为可观。尽管政府采取了较高幅度的有机肥补贴,硬性推进肥料替代仍会加重农户的种植负担,造成种植面积缩减,形成较大的经济成本。但就单位减排成本而言,肥料替代远低于依靠新能源电力取代火电的减排方式,可以认为高补贴推广有机肥不仅有益于实现政府减排目标,还能大幅降低减排成本。
The paper constructs a DNDC-CGE model to simulate the partial replacement of chemical fertilizer by organic manure in Shanghai,and conducts a comprehensive cost-effectiveness assessment through comparing with development of alternative energy.The study finds that when the net amount of fertilizer remains constant,the partial replacement would not affect the crop yield,and could effectively reduce the direct emissions.It also decreases the emissions in relative energy activity and livestock manure treatment while the latter one has huge mitigation potential.Although the government has adopted a high organic manure subsidy,the replacement would still burden famers and reduce the crop area,forming a large economic cost.But in terms of economic cost of per unit emssion reduction,fertilizer replacement is far cheaper than substitution of wind power for coal-fired power.It could be interpreted that promotion of organic manure with higher subsidy dose not only help to complete the mandatory cut target,but also significantly reduces emission mitigation cost.