In
Japan, herpes zoster is not monitored officially or nationwide. Recently, the
databases of all
electronic medical claims nationwide (NDBEMC) have been available for research.
We use NDBEMC from April 2011 to March 2015. To evaluate the effects of
initiation of routine immunization for varicella in children, we regressed the
number of herpes zoster patients on the dummy variable for the routine
immunization for varicella in children with and without a linear time trend. The
estimated coefficient for the routine immunization for varicella was 0.5157 and
its p-value was 0.001. However, if the
time trend was added as an explanatory variable, the estimated coefficient for
the routine immunization for varicella changed to be -0.039 and its p-value was
0.384. It means that the routine immunization for varicella was 7.8% higher after
introduction than before. However, it was presumed to reflect such an upward
trend.
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